Drought in Scotland

Background and Global Context: 
Increasing drought is a poorly studied and poorly understood consequence of climate change (Vincente-Serrano et al, 2022), especially in areas of complex weather conditions like Scotland (Baird et al, 2022). Droughts are difficult to classify, to measure, and to track, driven by many interrelated factors and occurring in many forms (Met Office, 2024). While it has been challenging to identify how climate change may alter drought patterns, the amount of research on the subject is on the rise. 

On a global scale, there is confidence that drought is becoming more common in areas prone to high temperatures and lower rainfall (Met Office, 2021). To oversimplify, this is likely down to the combined effects of increased human water use and rising air temperatures increasing evaporation (Vicente-Serrano et al 2022). Limited research exists focusing specifically on drought in Scotland, although the subject has gradually gained more interest in recent years. 

Drought in Scotland
While flooding and storms are set to increase, new research is more certain that Scotland will also experience increasing water scarcity and drought events. In fact, there is evidence drought events have already risen over the last 70 years. Spinoni, Naumann and Vogt (2017) identify many areas of increasing drought frequency across Europe, as shown in figure 1. In Scotland they found drought to have risen primarily along the East coast, at a rate of around +1 event per decade. 

This heightened risk of the East coast is projected to continue, with Baird, Partridge, and Spray (2021) predicting areas like Aberdeenshire and Caithness will likely experience the worst of coming drought events. Figure 2 displays their findings, revealing that the whole country can expect an increase in both the frequency and duration of extreme drought events. 
Hotspots in the East, North and Borders will fare the worst. The Cairngorms for example may expect to experience 11.5 extreme drought events during the 2021-2040 period, as opposed to the 1-2 it experienced in 1981-2001. The duration of total extreme drought in the Cairngorms will also rise as shown in fig. 2, from 1-2 months to as many as 23 between 2021-2040. 

Impacts: 
Scotland is a country of many unique but highly delicate ecosystems, many of which rely on a damp environment. Baird et al (2022) discuss the risk to wetland areas such as peatbogs and temperate rainforests. These areas are home to precious biodiversity and sequester significant volumes of carbon. Should they be degraded by drought, this may compound ongoing global trends of biodiversity loss and increasing atmospheric carbon (Baird et al, 2022). 

As a country known for being driech, Scotland's infrastructure is poorly suited to saving water. In the areas at highest risk such as rural Aberdeenshire, tens of thousands of residents may need emergency support during times of extended drought, as their well water supplies may dwindle (Baird, Partridge and Stubbs, 2021). 

Another major consideration is the economic impact. Forestry, aquaculture, distilleries, energy production and of course agriculture all depend on the regular supply of water, so would face high losses in times of drought (Gosling et al, 2024). With the East's high dependence on agricultural activity, this again puts the area at a heightened risk. 

To learn more about Scotland’s rising temperatures, or Scotland’s many unique habitats, click the links to visit the respective sheets.